The Western Bulldogs are set to demand more than just Geelong’s first-round draft pick in exchange for uncontracted midfielder Bailey Smith, as they prepare for what could be a lengthy negotiation during the trade period. Geelong’s current first-round pick, originally pick 17, has already been pushed back due to band one compensation picks awarded to St Kilda and the Giants for losing Josh Battle and Harry Perryman, respectively.
With this pick likely to drift further to pick 20 or 21 on draft night in November, due to priority access bids under the AFL’s draft rules, the Bulldogs are looking for greater value in return for Smith, given his potential and importance to their midfield. The protracted trade talks could be one of the more significant storylines during this trade period as both clubs look to strike a deal.
The Western Bulldogs are firm in their stance that Geelong’s first-round draft pick, which is expected to slide to around pick 20 due to bids on players like Levi Ashcroft, Leo Lombard, Isaac Kako, and potentially Sam Marshall, is insufficient compensation for Bailey Smith. Despite Smith’s recent ACL injury and the fact he missed the 2024 season recovering from knee reconstruction, the Bulldogs believe his value far exceeds that of the 20th best prospect in the upcoming national draft.
Smith, who was originally selected with pick seven in the 2018 draft and has played 103 games for the Bulldogs, remains a highly regarded player. Although he hasn’t finished in the top 10 of the club’s best and fairest in the past two seasons, the Bulldogs are mindful of his talent and potential as they enter what could be a drawn-out negotiation period with Geelong.
A club source has indicated that the Bulldogs will seek a stronger return, given Smith’s pedigree and the substantial investment they have made in his development over the years. This stance sets the stage for a challenging trade period, where Geelong will need to offer more than just their first-round pick if they hope to secure Smith.
Bailey Smith’s potential move to Geelong comes with a blend of both promise and risk. While Smith has been a standout player, especially during his brilliant 2021 finals series, his form has dipped in recent seasons. This downturn is compounded by his struggles with mental health, particularly in the intense football environment of Melbourne, and his 2022 suspension following an illicit drug-related incident. These factors present some risk for any club looking to offer him a long-term deal, and Geelong could argue that his recent performance and off-field challenges warrant caution in negotiations.
However, the Cats have shown significant interest in the dynamic playmaker, actively engaging with Smith despite his drop in form. Smith’s connections to Geelong, through his role as an ambassador for the fashion brand Cotton On, and his appearance alongside Cats supporters during the recent preliminary final, further suggest he is open to the move.
Despite Smith being out of contract, which weakens the Bulldogs’ negotiating leverage, the Western Bulldogs are keen to secure strong compensation for their former first-round pick. But Geelong, known for driving tough bargains at the trade table, may push back, leveraging Smith’s recent struggles and the fact that he is uncontracted. With Smith’s future still in flux, the trade period could see extended negotiations, with both clubs trying to find a fair balance between the risk and the high potential that Smith offers.
The Dogs could contemplate forcing him to the pre-season draft, but that would seem unlikely as they would receive nothing for him, although the Cats would not want that option raised either.
Geelong received picks 25, 76 and 94 when they traded uncontracted tall Esava Ratugolea last year and have picks 17, 38, 56, 74 and 92 plus future picks in hand as they enter this year’s trade period.
The Western Bulldogs are set to engage in another challenging negotiation, this time with St Kilda, regarding the potential trade of premiership midfielder Jack Macrae. Despite Macrae’s diminished role in the 2024 season, where he found himself on the fringes of the Bulldogs’ lineup and was a substitute during the elimination final, the Bulldogs are prepared to hold him to his contract if they don’t receive adequate compensation.
Macrae’s situation is somewhat unique. Once a key player, his drop in form and reduced role in 2024 — notably being overlooked for James Harmes, who hadn’t played since round 12 — might give St Kilda leverage in trade talks. However, the Bulldogs are likely to seek significant value for the experienced midfielder, given his decorated career and standing at the club.
This negotiation, like that of Bailey Smith, may be extended, with the Bulldogs positioning themselves to maximize the return for a player who still has the potential to make an impact elsewhere, despite his recent dip in form. St Kilda, meanwhile, will need to assess how much they’re willing to offer for a player who could potentially revive his career in a new environment.
Jack Macrae’s contract with the Western Bulldogs, which runs until 2027, adds a layer of complexity to the trade negotiations with St Kilda. An industry source has indicated that the Saints are reluctant to part with pick 46 for the 30-year-old midfielder, despite his reduced role at the Bulldogs over the past two seasons. Macrae, a premiership player, has struggled to secure a permanent spot in the Bulldogs’ midfield, but his experience and past achievements still make him a valuable asset.
Both the Bulldogs and St Kilda are expected to lean on historical precedents involving trades of contracted veterans to strengthen their bargaining positions. The Bulldogs will likely argue for a higher draft pick or better compensation based on Macrae’s past contributions and long-term contract, while the Saints may point to recent form and his diminished role as reasons to hold firm on their offer.
This back-and-forth sets the stage for an extended negotiation, with both clubs keen to come out on top. St Kilda will be cautious about overpaying for a player nearing the twilight of his career, while the Bulldogs will want to maximize value for a player they could still hold onto under contract.