Since that infamous night in Abu Dhabi in 2021, it’s been rare to say that Lewis Hamilton holds a clear advantage over Max Verstappen.
However, as the Formula 1 season reaches its critical phase and attention begins to shift toward F1 2025, the seven-time world champion will approach this weekend’s United States Grand Prix with that very thought in mind.
Hamilton’s form since that infamous title loss three years ago has been widely debated, but no matter how you look at it, two wins during this period—at this year’s British and Belgian Grands Prix—are far below the standards expected of the seven-time world champion. Of course, much of the blame lies with the underperforming Mercedes cars he’s had to drive since then, rather than with Hamilton himself.
As Verstappen has demonstrated at Red Bull this season, particularly when compared to his teammate Sergio Perez, a world-class driver always has a fighting chance given the right circumstances. For Hamilton, few tracks offer a better opportunity than Austin, a venue where he has historically performed well. (Don’t forget to cast your vote on where you think Hamilton will finish this year in our GPFans poll at the bottom of the page).
Lewis Hamilton has won at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) in Austin a record five times. The US Grand Prix in Texas has been a highly successful venue for Hamilton, and even when he doesn’t secure victory, he consistently maximizes his performance. A win this weekend would give him twice as many victories in Austin as any other driver.
Hamilton claimed his first win at COTA during the inaugural race in 2012, which also marked his final win with McLaren. He then won four of the next five races at the circuit, with his only miss coming in 2013 during Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull’s dominant streak of nine consecutive wins.
Beyond race victories, Hamilton also sealed his 2015 world championship at COTA, famously clashing with teammate Nico Rosberg during the podium celebrations. He won again in 2019, and although he’s finished second on track in every race since, he was disqualified last season due to an illegal skid block.
Nevertheless, aside from 2013, when he finished fourth, Hamilton has always reached the podium at COTA, making him a significant threat this weekend.
Lewis Hamilton could play a crucial role in the F1 title battle between Max Verstappen and Lando Norris, potentially affecting the outcome in both positive and negative ways for Verstappen. While Verstappen has dominated at COTA, winning the last three races, he’s under increasing pressure from Norris, as McLaren currently boasts one of the strongest packages across the grid.
Verstappen needs to stay close to Norris in every race to secure his fourth consecutive championship. However, a fired-up Hamilton, capable of challenging both drivers, could disrupt Verstappen’s weekend by finishing between him and Norris, giving Norris a valuable chance to close the championship gap.
On the other hand, Hamilton could also unexpectedly help Verstappen. If Hamilton wins and Norris and Verstappen finish second and third, Verstappen would lose fewer points to Norris than in a one-two scenario. Conversely, if Verstappen beats Norris but Hamilton wins, the points gap could still shrink less than expected.
Though Hamilton isn’t directly involved in the championship fight, he can undoubtedly influence the title battle in Austin.