With the Pittsburgh Pirates’ chances of making the MLB playoffs below 1%, they could consider shutting down their standout rookie, right-hander Paul Skenes, to safeguard his long-term health. This is Skenes’ first full professional season, and he has already pitched 125 1/3 innings across the majors and minors, approaching the total he logged last year between Louisiana State and his brief stint with the Pirates. By ending his rookie season early, the team could argue it’s for his health and to preserve him for a potential playoff run in 2025.
However, another motivation could be to prevent Skenes from finishing in the top two of the National League Rookie of the Year voting, which would grant him a full year of service time and potentially keep him in Pittsburgh for an additional season. Despite this, sources indicate that the Pirates currently have no plans to impose an innings limit on Skenes. Instead, they might consider limiting his outings if he remains healthy, similar to how the Chicago White Sox are managing Garrett Crochet’s innings in his first season as a starter. Notably, Skenes, 22, who debuted in the majors on May 11, might earn a full year of service time under a rule from the 2022 collective bargaining agreement, which rewards the top two Rookie of the Year finishers in each league, regardless of the number of major league days.
For the Pirates, the impact of retaining Paul Skenes for five more years versus six would be significant. As a team with a typically low payroll, the likelihood of the Pirates being able to offer Skenes a lucrative extension is quite slim. For Skenes, the difference could be substantial as well. His final year of arbitration could transition into his first year of free agency, allowing him to enter the open market after his age-27 season instead of a year later. Skenes made a notable debut by starting the All-Star Game just two months into his major league career and might still finish first or second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, even if he does not pitch again this season. However, the competition is intensifying. San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill has become a strong contender, while Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio has posted an on-base plus slugging percentage close to .900 since June 1. San Francisco Giants shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald could achieve a 20-homer, 20-stolen base season in fewer than 100 games, and Chicago Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga, who trails Skenes in ERA, may finish with more innings if the Pirates manage Skenes’ workload aggressively. This makes the decision to shut down Skenes particularly tempting for the Pirates. A sixth consecutive losing season would be compounded by losing a year of control over their young ace. Additionally, under the 2022 collective bargaining agreement, the Pirates would not receive a draft pick if Skenes wins Rookie of the Year.
To secure the draft pick incentive, a team must include a consensus top-100 prospect on its opening day roster or promote them within the first two weeks. The player must then either win the Rookie of the Year award or finish in the top three of the MVP or Cy Young Award voting. Teams that have successfully achieved this include the Seattle Mariners with center fielder Julio Rodríguez, the Orioles with shortstop Gunnar Henderson, and the Arizona Diamondbacks with outfielder Corbin Carroll. This incentive was designed to discourage teams from manipulating service time, with prospects like Skenes in mind. However, the Pirates promoted Skenes too late for him to be eligible for this incentive, as they opted for a gradual ramp-up in his workload. They were also aware that securing an extra pick could compromise their own position. The risks for teams like the Mariners, Orioles, and Diamondbacks, who had Rodríguez, Henderson, and Carroll on their opening day rosters, were relatively low. All three players had spent at least two seasons in the minors and were key figures in their organizations, with less concern about workload for position players compared to pitchers. Skenes’ impressive major league performance, with a 2.30 ERA and 32% strikeout rate, justified the timing of his promotion. To diminish his chances of finishing in the top two for Rookie of the Year, the Pirates would have needed to keep him in the minors until at least late June, which would have been detrimental to both Skenes and the team.
By promoting Paul Skenes earlier, the Pirates missed out on another potential advantage. Skenes is likely to achieve Super Two status, which would grant him an extra year of arbitration eligibility. Despite this, the Pirates had little choice; Skenes’ exceptional performance made it impossible to keep him in the minors. His presence benefited the franchise by boosting the Pirates’ image among fans and within the sport. However, the new rules have placed the Pirates in a challenging position. They won’t receive a draft pick for Skenes due to the timing of his promotion and could lose a year of club control because of his potential Super Two status. Additionally, baseball writers who vote for MLB awards are adjusting to these new rules. Writers from each AL or NL city vote on awards like MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year. While there were concerns about linking Rookie of the Year votes to service time, the writers felt that having 30 voters decide on a player’s eligibility for a full year of service made the situation manageable.
When asked this month about the possibility of the Pirates reducing his pitch counts or providing more rest between starts, Skenes mentioned, “What they’re thinking and what I’m thinking is pretty well aligned.” He acknowledged there might be a limit on his innings but wasn’t sure of the exact number. Later that day, Pirates General Manager Ben Cherington clarified that there was no set innings limit for Skenes. He emphasized that decisions would be based on game performance and what happens between starts rather than a strict cap. Cherington noted, “We’re not going to stop competing. If there’s no clear risk to competing for anyone, position player or pitcher, it’s not my role to arbitrarily decide they shouldn’t be competing.” As the season progresses, the Pirates face important decisions regarding Skenes’ usage, balancing his health with other considerations.